U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/united- ... -time.html
the Kapital Markets thread
'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach warns of 'demons on the horizon' for stocks - and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... fed-2023-9
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... fed-2023-9
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation.
“We’re going to have a debt crisis in this country,” the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates said in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen that aired Thursday. The two were speaking at a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association. “How fast it transpires, I think, is going to be a function of that supply-demand issue, so I’m watching that very closely.”
Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%.
“I think you’re going to get a meaningful slowing of the economy,” Dalio said.-----
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/ray-dal ... risis.html
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is watching closely the “risky” U.S. fiscal situation.
“We’re going to have a debt crisis in this country,” the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates said in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen that aired Thursday. The two were speaking at a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association. “How fast it transpires, I think, is going to be a function of that supply-demand issue, so I’m watching that very closely.”
Dalio is concerned there are more headwinds for the economy than just high debt levels, saying growth could fall to zero, give or take 1% or 2%.
“I think you’re going to get a meaningful slowing of the economy,” Dalio said.-----
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/ray-dal ... risis.html
Something is breaking in financial markets — Here’s what’s behind the sell-off
Rates are expected to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb.
Getting used to a more typical rate structure doesn’t sound like such a terrible thing. But after 15 years of living in an unnaturally low rate regime, normal sounds, well, abnormal.
“All of this has to be assimilated and digested by the market,” said Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial. “You can see that it’s troubling and it’s difficult.”
That cracking sound in financial markets isn’t the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. Instead, this is more a break in a narrative, one that has widespread repercussions.
The narrative in question is the one where the Federal Reserve holds interest rates low and everyone on Wall Street gets to enjoy the fruits.
That’s changing.
In its place comes a story in which rates are going to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb.
“When you have an economy predicated on zero rates, this fast move [by the 10-year Treasury yield] towards 5%, the calculus has to change, because the ramifications are going to change,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate.”
Getting used to a more typical rate structure doesn’t sound like such a terrible thing. After all, prior to the financial crisis, the 10-year Treasury yield had averaged around 7%, though that also was skewed by the historic rate increases in the early 1980s.
But after 15 years of living in an unnaturally low rate regime, normal sounds, well, abnormal.
Trouble for financials
Multiple parts of the economy face substantial interest rate risk, but none more so than banks. The sector was jolted earlier this year by the high-profile failure of a few banks that had built up too much long-duration government debt, then had to sell at a loss following deposit runs......
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/03/somethi ... l-off.html
Rates are expected to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb.
Getting used to a more typical rate structure doesn’t sound like such a terrible thing. But after 15 years of living in an unnaturally low rate regime, normal sounds, well, abnormal.
“All of this has to be assimilated and digested by the market,” said Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial. “You can see that it’s troubling and it’s difficult.”
That cracking sound in financial markets isn’t the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. Instead, this is more a break in a narrative, one that has widespread repercussions.
The narrative in question is the one where the Federal Reserve holds interest rates low and everyone on Wall Street gets to enjoy the fruits.
That’s changing.
In its place comes a story in which rates are going to stay higher for longer, an idea Fed officials have tried to get the market to accept and which investors are only now beginning to absorb.
“When you have an economy predicated on zero rates, this fast move [by the 10-year Treasury yield] towards 5%, the calculus has to change, because the ramifications are going to change,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate.”
Getting used to a more typical rate structure doesn’t sound like such a terrible thing. After all, prior to the financial crisis, the 10-year Treasury yield had averaged around 7%, though that also was skewed by the historic rate increases in the early 1980s.
But after 15 years of living in an unnaturally low rate regime, normal sounds, well, abnormal.
Trouble for financials
Multiple parts of the economy face substantial interest rate risk, but none more so than banks. The sector was jolted earlier this year by the high-profile failure of a few banks that had built up too much long-duration government debt, then had to sell at a loss following deposit runs......
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/03/somethi ... l-off.html
Tim Cook dumps a chunk of Apple shares this week in his biggest scheduled sale in 2 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/tim-coo ... years.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/tim-coo ... years.html
This is the early stage of a governmental balance sheet recession, says Virtus’ Joe Terranova
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/04/t ... anova.html
Rising energy prices will weaken the economy, says Virtus' Joe Terranova
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/09/20/c ... -link.html
note: I don't agree/disagree with all the Financial/Economic "Expert" Forecaster Opinions expressed in this thread......just sharing the Diverse Perspective and Captivating HLs in this thread as a kind of recording of history as a lesson in "Money Matters" education
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/04/t ... anova.html
Rising energy prices will weaken the economy, says Virtus' Joe Terranova
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/09/20/c ... -link.html
note: I don't agree/disagree with all the Financial/Economic "Expert" Forecaster Opinions expressed in this thread......just sharing the Diverse Perspective and Captivating HLs in this thread as a kind of recording of history as a lesson in "Money Matters" education
just checked youtube for the Joe Terranova "Fast Money Recession" vid to check the comments to see what people are saying and read this:
@paulrobbo321
34 minutes ago
Jeez Joe is hardly Rocky Marciano, 2 months ago he was smirking at people who mentioned recession
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XXiBQa7ZfQ
@paulrobbo321
34 minutes ago
Jeez Joe is hardly Rocky Marciano, 2 months ago he was smirking at people who mentioned recession
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XXiBQa7ZfQ
The dream economic scenario of soft landing, no recession is dead
Wall Street's vision of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is unraveling.
The Fed's "higher for longer" mantra has dashed hopes that a recession is avoidable.
The US economy is feeling the lagging effects of tight monetary policy as risk factors converge.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ks-2023-10
Wall Street's vision of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is unraveling.
The Fed's "higher for longer" mantra has dashed hopes that a recession is avoidable.
The US economy is feeling the lagging effects of tight monetary policy as risk factors converge.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ks-2023-10
A little bit of national socialism is good the body whole???!!
Jim Cramer argues the bears are wrong: The economy and market are actually strong
Cramer on why a ‘hard landing’ is unlikely — and why it’s time to own stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/jim-cra ... tocks.html
Jim Cramer praises Walgreens new CEO pick, says buy the stock ‘perhaps aggressively’
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/jim-cra ... stock.html
Cramer on why a ‘hard landing’ is unlikely — and why it’s time to own stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/jim-cra ... tocks.html
Jim Cramer praises Walgreens new CEO pick, says buy the stock ‘perhaps aggressively’
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/jim-cra ... stock.html
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