Blinken launches fresh diplomatic push in Ukraine as fears of Russian invasion mount

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Blinken launches fresh diplomatic push in Ukraine as fears of Russian invasion mount

Postby Edge Guerrero » Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:25 pm

The secretary of state's trip to Europe comes after White House press secretary Jen Psaki warned Tuesday of an “extremely dangerous situation” building along the Ukrainian border.

By Yuliya Talmazan and Tatyana Chistikova

Fearing that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent, the United States launched a fresh effort Wednesday to resolve the standoff even as Moscow continued to mass troops on its neighbor's doorstep.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a hastily arranged diplomatic mission that signaled the urgency of the crisis.

Blinken was also set to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday, even after a flurry of negotiations last week produced no breakthrough and lowered hopes for de-escalation.

With Europe facing one of its greatest security crises since the Cold War, Washington’s warning that a Russian attack could come “at any point” was ringing through the winter air as Blinken arrived on the continent early Wednesday.

Speaking to diplomats at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, Blinken echoed those concerns as he warned that Moscow's troop buildup would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch an attack "on very short notice."

President Joe Biden's top diplomat added that he strongly hopes Russia can stick to a peaceful path, Reuters reported. The Russian buildup, he said, was taking place with “no provocation, no reason,” according to the agency.

In a later meeting with Zelenskyy, Blinken said that Ukraine faces an “unprecedented” threat. He reiterated Washington's commitment to the country's territorial integrity and repeated warnings that renewed Russian aggression would be met with “very severe consequences."

During his time in Kyiv, Blinken will also meet with the employees of the U.S. embassy and their families to discuss efforts “to plan for contingencies,” should Russia choose to escalate further, the State Department said.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of senators briefed Biden on their trip to Ukraine this week to meet with Zelenskyy, which preceded Blinken's visit.

“Democrats and Republicans must remain united on the urgent need to support Ukraine in defense of its sovereignty and pro-democratic aspirations,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., tweeted Wednesday. “Now we must find a path forward together that responds to those needs and holds Putin to account.”

After speaking with Biden on Wednesday morning, a group of GOP senators, some of whom participated in the weekend trip to Ukraine, accused the administration of not doing enough to deter Russia.

Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the ranking member on the Senate Armed Service Committee, told reporters that the U.S. should quickly deliver additional aid and bolster Ukraine’s defenses. The Biden administration, he said, is “three months behind where they should be at this time.”

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, who led the trip to Ukraine with Shaheen, also said that in addition to imposing sanctions, the U.S. must let Russia know that it will provide additional military defenses and lethal weapons to Ukraine.

“That is the kind of deterrence that’s needed right now” in order to avoid an invasion into Ukraine and the destabilization of Europe, he said.

On Tuesday White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that an “extremely dangerous situation” is building along the Ukrainian border. "We believe we’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine. I would say that’s more stark than we have been,” Psaki said during her daily press briefing.

Last week, the Biden administration said it had information that the Russian government is planning a “false-flag” operation to justify a fresh military incursion into its neighbor, after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and backed an ongoing separatist war with Ukrainian forces in the country’s East.

The growing alarm comes after inconclusive talks between Moscow and the West following Russia's demands for security guarantees that the U.S. and its allies have consistently ruled out.

Russia amassed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border in recent months, prompting Western fears that Moscow is planning to invade. The Kremlin has steadfastly denied any such plan.

Adding to those fears, Russian forces and equipment continued to arrive in Belarus on Tuesday for what Moscow and Minsk have said is a planned joint military exercise next month. The former Soviet state is a staunch Moscow ally and borders Ukraine to the north.

A senior administration official called the arrival of Russian troops and equipment in Belarus “neither an exercise nor normal troop movement," but "a show of strength" that could give a false pretext for a crisis.

"It’s a move that’s extremely dangerous,” the official said in a briefing ahead of Blinken's visit. “We are now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine.”

Image

But Moscow remained defiant about the movements of its troops Wednesday, with the Russian embassy in Washington calling it a "sovereign right."

“Once again we emphasize: Russia is not going to attack anyone,” the embassy said in a Facebook post.

The U.S. has warned Russia of dire economic consequences should it invade, and has sought to rally allies throughout Europe to present a strong and united front.

After his meetings with Zelenskyy and other senior Ukrainian officials, Blinken will continue to Berlin for talks with German and other European allies on Thursday

Source https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/blinken-ukraine-russia-attack-short-notice-invasion-fears-mount-rcna12691
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Postby sparkuri » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:40 am

Ww3 is about to pop.

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Postby Edge Guerrero » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:57 pm

sparkuri wrote:Ww3 is about to pop.


- I dont know if will get on that scale, but a new war is close.
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Postby Edge Guerrero » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:03 pm

By Dan De Luce

The U.S. is threatening painful sanctions against Russia if it launches an attack on Ukraine, but Moscow could hit back at the West by throttling natural gas supplies to Europe or triggering a spike in oil prices, experts and former U.S. officials say.

The Biden administration says it's holding talks with gas companies and European governments to prepare for possible Russian attempts to disrupt the flow of natural gas to Europe, but it’s not clear whether Washington and its allies will be able to offset a concerted retaliation by Russia, former officials and industry experts said.

A short disruption on a limited scale could be managed, although natural gas prices would rise further and governments would have to help subsidize the effort, industry analysts said. However, a major cut in gas supplies over a sustained period could have devastating consequences.

“It could be very, very difficult for companies or countries to come up with enough supply to close a very big gap,“ said Kevin Book, the managing director at ClearView Energy Partners.

“Russia can dig a bigger hole in supply than the West can plug,” Book said. “That’s just a matter of molecules and math.”

The potential economic confrontation between Moscow and Washington represents uncharted territory, as Washington has never imposed drastic sanctions on an economy of Russia’s size and importance. And if it is faced with unprecedented sanctions, Russia would be likely to choose to respond in an unprecedented way that could have ripple effects in the U.S. economy and around the world, experts said.

“The Kremlin’s ability to meaningfully retaliate is significant,” said Adam Smith, who was a senior sanctions official in the Obama administration and is now a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn.

If the U.S. imposes the sweeping sanctions it has threatened, China will be watching closely. “This Russia case is really going to test the ability of the Western powers to use sanctions against great powers,” Smith said.

Imposing sanctions on some major Russian commercial banks or restricting Russia’s access to bond markets — measures the administration is considering — could cause some collateral damage to Western companies or investors, and U.S. officials are looking at how to carve out exceptions to soften any harmful effects, former officials said.

In response to U.S. sanctions, Russia also could orchestrate a campaign of cyber hacking and ransomware attacks that could disrupt Western markets and industries, experts say. But the most serious blowback from a U.S. sanctions package against Russia would almost certainly come in the energy sector, where Russia is a world player with resources that move markets, experts said.

Despite pleas from the U.S. and Eastern European governments over the years, Europe remains dependent on Russian gas. Moscow is Europe’s main supplier, providing about 40 percent of the continent’s gas. It also provides more than half of Europe’s coal, and it is a leading supplier of crude oil.

Germany is even more dependent, relying on Russia for more than 50 percent of its gas, and Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom owns many of Germany’s underground storage sites.

European governments have sought to shift to greener sources of energy, and their own oil and gas production has declined.

Europe uses about 400 billion to 500 billion cubic meters of gas a year, and Russia provides about 130 billion to 170 billion cubic meters to Europe annually, with a third of that moving through pipelines in Ukraine.

If Russia squeezed gas supplies, European countries could try to make up the difference in shipments of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and the Middle East.

Experts say that if Russia were to cut off gas supplies entirely, a drastic and unlikely move, there isn’t enough liquefied natural gas available on the world market to make up the difference.

If Russia were to cut off the approximately 40 billion cubic meters of gas that flows through Ukraine, it would be a challenge to make up the shortfall through liquefied natural gas shipments or other energy sources. But making up the shortfall would also have consequences: gas prices would rise further and governments would have to subsidize the effort, experts said.



The U.S. is threatening painful sanctions against Russia if it launches an attack on Ukraine, but Moscow could hit back at the West by throttling natural gas supplies to Europe or triggering a spike in oil prices, experts and former U.S. officials say.

The Biden administration says it's holding talks with gas companies and European governments to prepare for possible Russian attempts to disrupt the flow of natural gas to Europe, but it’s not clear whether Washington and its allies will be able to offset a concerted retaliation by Russia, former officials and industry experts said.

A short disruption on a limited scale could be managed, although natural gas prices would rise further and governments would have to help subsidize the effort, industry analysts said. However, a major cut in gas supplies over a sustained period could have devastating consequences.

“It could be very, very difficult for companies or countries to come up with enough supply to close a very big gap,“ said Kevin Book, the managing director at ClearView Energy Partners.

“Russia can dig a bigger hole in supply than the West can plug,” Book said. “That’s just a matter of molecules and math.”


Blinken: U.S. has delivered written response to Moscow on ‘serious diplomatic path forward’
The potential economic confrontation between Moscow and Washington represents uncharted territory, as Washington has never imposed drastic sanctions on an economy of Russia’s size and importance. And if it is faced with unprecedented sanctions, Russia would be likely to choose to respond in an unprecedented way that could have ripple effects in the U.S. economy and around the world, experts said.

“The Kremlin’s ability to meaningfully retaliate is significant,” said Adam Smith, who was a senior sanctions official in the Obama administration and is now a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn.

If the U.S. imposes the sweeping sanctions it has threatened, China will be watching closely. “This Russia case is really going to test the ability of the Western powers to use sanctions against great powers,” Smith said.

Imposing sanctions on some major Russian commercial banks or restricting Russia’s access to bond markets — measures the administration is considering — could cause some collateral damage to Western companies or investors, and U.S. officials are looking at how to carve out exceptions to soften any harmful effects, former officials said.

In response to U.S. sanctions, Russia also could orchestrate a campaign of cyber hacking and ransomware attacks that could disrupt Western markets and industries, experts say. But the most serious blowback from a U.S. sanctions package against Russia would almost certainly come in the energy sector, where Russia is a world player with resources that move markets, experts said.

Despite pleas from the U.S. and Eastern European governments over the years, Europe remains dependent on Russian gas. Moscow is Europe’s main supplier, providing about 40 percent of the continent’s gas. It also provides more than half of Europe’s coal, and it is a leading supplier of crude oil.

Germany is even more dependent, relying on Russia for more than 50 percent of its gas, and Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom owns many of Germany’s underground storage sites.

European governments have sought to shift to greener sources of energy, and their own oil and gas production has declined.

Europe uses about 400 billion to 500 billion cubic meters of gas a year, and Russia provides about 130 billion to 170 billion cubic meters to Europe annually, with a third of that moving through pipelines in Ukraine.

If Russia squeezed gas supplies, European countries could try to make up the difference in shipments of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and the Middle East.

Experts say that if Russia were to cut off gas supplies entirely, a drastic and unlikely move, there isn’t enough liquefied natural gas available on the world market to make up the difference.

If Russia were to cut off the approximately 40 billion cubic meters of gas that flows through Ukraine, it would be a challenge to make up the shortfall through liquefied natural gas shipments or other energy sources. But making up the shortfall would also have consequences: gas prices would rise further and governments would have to subsidize the effort, experts said.

About two-thirds of the world’s liquefied natural gas cargo is already under contract, and governments might have to cover the cost of firms’ breaking contracts to divert it to Europe from other markets, experts said.

Europe’s capacity to receive the natural gas shipments is also limited, and it would be a struggle to accommodate a major increase in deliveries depending on how much gas is needed to make up for shortfalls, experts said.


U.S. officials have held talks with Qatar, one of the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas, to see whether Doha could help cushion the blow of reduced supplies. But Qatar is already producing at full capacity, and most of its shipments are already en route to Asia under long-term contracts, Bloomberg News reported.

Russia has cut off gas supplies before, but only briefly during disputes with Ukraine. In 2009, gas supplies were shut down for nearly two weeks in wintertime, forcing Slovakia and some Balkan countries to ration gas and cut power supplies.

If Russia carried out a major cutback on gas deliveries, European countries would have to consider rationing and governments would have to decide how much they were willing to share gas and energy resources with their neighbors.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean peninsula, the Obama administration chose to avoid large-scale sanctions against Moscow, partly because of fears that Russia could wage economic warfare of its own by exploiting vast oil and gas reserves, according to former officials.

But Biden administration officials say they are confident that natural gas producers will be able to ramp up production to help offset any Russian attempt to squeeze supply.

“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring, we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior administration official told reporters Tuesday.

The official noted that Russia has already cut by half the customary level of gas supplies flowing to Europe through Ukraine.

The official’s comments are “a way of sending a message to Putin: We know what you might do, and we’re prepared for that,” said Dan Fried, a former career diplomat who crafted sanctions policy and now works at the Atlantic Council think tank.

The U.S. has had to accept the harsh reality that introducing hard-hitting financial sanctions on Russia carries risks, but sacrifices are necessary to deter Moscow, Fried said. “Your risk tolerance has to go up when you’re talking about a land war in Europe,” he said.

As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Russia could also slow down oil production and cause a spike in oil prices, a step that could aggravate inflation in the global economy and jack up gasoline prices for Americans. Oil is Russia’s most lucrative export, and Moscow would have to weigh the consequences of any cut in production.

U.S. officials argue that even though Europe depends heavily on Russian gas, Moscow also needs the revenue from the gas sales, and that cutting off gas shipments would hurt its own financial position.

The senior administration official said that “if Russia decides to weaponize its supply of natural gas or crude oil, it wouldn’t be without consequences to the Russian economy.”

“Remember, this is a one-dimensional economy, and that means it needs oil and gas revenues at least as much as Europe needs its energy supply,” the official said.

In the last several months, Europe already has experienced shortfalls in Russian gas supplies.

Although Russia has fulfilled long-term contracts and delivered enough gas to keep homes heated and factories operating, the overall flow of gas has declined, storage supplies have dwindled, and prices have hit record levels.

Western officials and industry analysts say Russia is clearly flexing its muscle to signal its leverage over energy. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, blamed Russia this month for record-high energy prices in Europe, saying Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom had sent 25 percent less gas than usual to Europe.

But Moscow denies there has been any deliberate bid to scale back shipments.

With Russia facing potentially harsh financial sanctions and restrictions on U.S.-made technology if it attacks Ukraine, and with the West facing a possible energy crisis in the middle of winter, the question is who would blink first.

Compared to 2014, the last time Russia launched an invasion into Ukraine, Moscow’s economy is in a stronger position thanks to high oil prices and a record level of foreign currency reserves, including gold, totaling $620 billion.

“The reality is that today you have a situation in which Russia is much more prepared to weather significant sanctions than they were in 2014,“ Smith said.

Drawing on its reserves, Russia would be able to sustain a certain degree of financial damage from U.S. sanctions. But for how long?

Prolonged spikes in energy prices and gas shortages could make it difficult for leaders in Western democracies to maintain sanctions on Russia, as voters might demand a change in course to ease the pressure on their costs of living.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin, who presides over an autocratic system with no genuine political opposition, doesn’t have to answer to popular pressure. Russia might be able to tolerate a protracted economic downturn longer than adversaries in the West, some experts said.

“Russia has a reasonable expectation that consumer democracies very well might find that their pain point comes sooner, because of their political systems and their reliance on energy,” Book said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-severe-sanctions-trigger-crippling-moscow-respon-rcna13691
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Postby Edge Guerrero » Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:33 pm

US boosts tWroops in Europe amid fears Russia may invade Ukraine

US President Joe Biden is to send extra troops to Europe this week amid continuing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, White House officials say.

Some 2,000 troops will be sent from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland and Germany, and a further 1,000 already in Germany will go to Romania.

Moscow denies planning to invade but has deployed an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders.

It fiercely opposes Ukraine joining the US-led Nato military alliance.

The tensions come eight years after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula and backed a bloody rebellion in the eastern Donbas region.

Moscow accuses the Ukrainian government of failing to implement an international deal to restore peace to the east - where Russian-backed rebels control swathes of territory and at least 14,000 people have been killed since 2014.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia had not yet amassed enough forces to mount a full-scale invasion and that diplomacy was helping avert the threat of a Russian attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to speak to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson by phone on Wednesday. Earlier, on a visit to Ukraine, Mr Johnson accused Russia of putting a "gun to Ukraine's head".

The US troops being deployed will not fight in Ukraine but will ensure the defence of US allies.

Of the 2,000 troops being sent from Fort Bragg, 1,700 members of the 82nd Airborne Division will be sent to Poland and the others will go to Germany.

Their deployment is in addition to the 8,500 troops the Pentagon put on alert last month to be ready to deploy to Europe if needed.

"It's important that we send a strong signal to Mr Putin and, frankly, to the world that Nato matters to the United States and it matters to our allies," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

But on the question of alleged invasion plans by Mr Putin, he said: "We still don't believe he's made a decision to further invade Ukraine."

He also said that a US proposal "leaked to a European news outlet" was genuine. He appeared to be referring to a story in Spain's El País newspaper about a US offer of talks with Russia on cutting back on nuclear weaponry and trust-building measures in exchange for reducing tensions over Ukraine.

Mr Putin has accused the US of trying to draw his country into a war in Ukraine.

He said America's goal was to use a confrontation as a pretext to impose more sanctions on Russia.

"It seems to me that the United States is not so much concerned about the security of Ukraine... but its main task is to contain Russia's development. In this sense Ukraine itself is just a tool to reach this goal."

Rivalry between Russia and the US, which still possess the world's biggest nuclear arsenals, dates back to the Cold War (1947-89). Ukraine was then a crucial part of the communist Soviet Union, second only to Russia.

Mr Putin said the US had ignored Moscow's concerns in its response to Russian demands for legally binding security guarantees, including a block on the Nato alliance's further expansion to the east.

He suggested that if Ukraine were granted its wish to join Nato, it could drag the other members into a war with Russia.

"Imagine that Ukraine is a Nato member and a military operation [to regain Crimea] begins," the Russian leader said. "What - are we going to fight with Nato? Has anyone thought about this? It seems like they haven't."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60234377
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Postby Edge Guerrero » Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:44 pm

U.S. says Russia trying to create pretext for imminent invasion after shelling in east Ukraine

“We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” President Joe Biden said Thursday.

By Yuliya Talmazan and Rebecca Shabad

President Joe Biden said Thursday the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was "very high" as the United States and its allies warned Moscow was trying to create a pretext for an attack after shelling in the country's east.

Speaking to reporters on the White House lawn, Biden said Moscow could invade its neighbor “in the next several days.”

“We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” he said. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.”

Biden's comments came after Kyiv said Russian-backed separatists were responsible for “a big provocation" after the shelling of a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine. The flare-up in the long-running conflict further stoked fears of a deadly new outbreak of war in Europe.

Tensions showed no signs of easing after the West disputed Moscow’s claims of a troop pullback from near Ukraine's borders, with the Kremlin expelling a senior U.S. diplomat and delivering a sharp response to Washington over the Russian security demands at the heart of the crisis.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken changed his travel plans at the last minute to speak at a United Nations Security Council meeting on the subject in New York.

"I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one,” Blinken said.

Echoing Biden, he warned that U.S. intelligence indicates that more than 150,000 Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s borders, as well as aircraft and ships, “are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.”

Blinken spelled out what that could look like. “First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack," he said, before describing a campaign of bombings, cyberattacks and subsequent ground advance "on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans.”

“If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong,” Blinken added.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/shelling-eastern-ukraine-tensions-russia-troop-withdrawal-biden-nato-rcna16609

But hopes of a de-escalation were fading.
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