I'm Sensing Global Recession = WAR

[theraskal]

I really hope I'm wrong and it doesn't play out that way but I get a sense that there is potential that we are heading towards a Global Recession combined with various international tensions and muscles flexing which could lead to Major International Conflict

Example: When Emerging Nations begin to become a Major Military Power it would seem the result is some Chest Thumping Muscle Flexing desire to show what they can do and all it takes is a bit of tinder like a Global Recession to ignite the fire.......and so a situation like China with New Military Power, old grudges to be avenged, wanting to prove they are a EQUAL PLAYER while economy begins to falter....and there is the Recipe for WAR

and it's not just China, other countries all falling into Recession, if I'm correct, such conditions as Global Recession sometimes leads to Major Conflict? It's like an Economic Reset and Restructuring of Global Positions?

[theraskal]

just did a quick Websearch to investigate my contemplation and first result:

Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes


WASHINGTON, September 15, 2022—As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to a comprehensive new study by the World Bank.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... rate-hikes

[theraskal]

“Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession. My deep concern is that these trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for people in emerging market and developing economies,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... rate-hikes

[theraskal]

The study highlights the unusually fraught circumstances under which central banks are fighting inflation today. Several historical indicators of global recessions are already flashing warnings. The global economy is now in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970. Global consumer confidence has already suffered a much sharper decline than in the run-up to previous global recessions. The world’s three largest economies—the United States, China, and the euro area—have been slowing sharply. Under the circumstances, even a moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... rate-hikes

[theraskal]

Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

The world is reeling from shocks in geopolitics, energy and economics

The editors of the Collins English Dictionary have declared “permacrisis” to be their word of the year for 2022. Defined as an “an extended period of instability and insecurity”, it is an ugly portmanteau that accurately encapsulates today’s world as 2023 dawns. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest land war in Europe since 1945, the most serious risk of nuclear escalation since the Cuban missile crisis and the most far-reaching sanctions regime since the 1930s. Soaring food and energy costs have fuelled the highest rates of inflation since the 1980s in many countries and the biggest macroeconomic challenge in the modern era of central banking. Assumptions that have held for decades—that borders should be inviolable, nuclear weapons won’t be used, inflation will be low and the lights in rich countries will stay on—have all been simultaneously shaken.

https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahe ... le-in-2023

[Masato]

Scary thread.

It almost looks like we're going into a repeat of 100 years ago

So many similarities

[theraskal]

I doubt that anyone will initiate use of Nuclear Weapons because we all know that it's a LOSE/LOSE result. I would not be surprised to see nations attempt to capitalize on the opportunity to CRASH the economies of rivals even if it means some economic pain for themselves as they are tired of what they perceive to be the arrogance and past bullying of more powerful nations.

Domestically within nations, I'm sure some Elites would be able to ride out the economic and social challenges but as we have observed in history, when things get REALLY bad and the peasants have lost so much that there's not much left to lose, then they will then have the courage to turn against the Elites in the same way that Nations will seek to sabotage other nations we could see the peasants turn against the more prosperous 1%.

AI TECH revolution could be the wild card which raises all ships leading to the future of Leisure Living for All.

these are all just contemplations of possibilities.......it just seems that when Emerging countries are building up powerful militaries then they will eventually want to "Look at Me Now" flex those muscles they've been building...take the shirt off and strut.......combine this power build-up with Global Recession and it's not a good recipe.